Global oil prices spiked more than two percent Monday after a fresh flare-up in the US-Iran war, while stocks were mixed as hawkish comments from Federal Reserve boss Kevin Warsh saw investors ramp up bets on a US interest rate hike.
With inflation remaining stubbornly high -- largely on the back of elevated energy costs -- the US central bank has come under pressure to act, while Warsh's refusal to provide guidance has stoked uncertainty.
The Fed's battle against inflation has been hobbled by the Iran war, which has pushed oil prices higher.
And after a run lower for most of last week, they spiked again Monday, a day after the United States said it had attacked Iranian rocket launchers on a small island in the Strait of Hormuz, its first strikes on the country in a month. The attack prompted Tehran to retaliate by hitting US military targets in Jordan. Both main crude contracts rose more than two percent Monday. The exchange came shortly after the US-Iran war hit the six-month mark, and at a time when hostilities had been subsiding.
The news revived concerns about the conflict, with attempts and peace talks appearing to be going nowhere and the strait -- through which a fifth of global crude and gas passes -- largely closed. US officials this month vowed the "economic asphyxiation" of Iran to make it open the waterway.
"Hormuz is once again threatening to put a floor under oil just as Warsh is putting a ceiling on how much inflation patience markets should assume from the Fed," said Quintex Intel's Stephen Innes. "For oil traders, (the) move is another reminder of how quickly the geopolitical premium can return.
"Physical flows through Hormuz have improved materially from their worst levels, which is precisely why crude had started giving back some of the fear premium, but the latest exchange shows how fragile that progress remains and how quickly the shipping story can be pushed back onto the trading desk."
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